tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28968425.post5442842560478474066..comments2023-12-12T06:25:29.063-08:00Comments on Craig's Happy Place by Craig Berger: Facing the AceCraig Bergerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06895405601179743376noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28968425.post-83741420908570093002009-08-10T21:08:51.316-07:002009-08-10T21:08:51.316-07:00Yep, I later realized where the numbers came from....Yep, I later realized where the numbers came from. I had initially thought you were placing the qualifiers as 5:1 underdogs, when what you were really trying to say is that if the qualifier thinks he can win one out of every five times, he definitely should play the next match. On the other hand, good poker players gamble as infrequently as possible, so strictly speaking, the qualifier should only take that bet if he believes his odds to be slightly better than 5:1. Otherwise, he's making an even bet with an expected value of zero; i.e., if he played the match 5 times, he'd exactly break even. But I'm being absurdly pedantic here, and your point obviously stands.<br /><br />I was quite impressed with the second qualifier's play in the $200,000 match, so I had high expectations for him in the million-dollar match. I don't know if he got starstruck sitting at the table with Gavin Smith, or if his nerves simply got the better of him, but he definitely played more conservatively in the last match.<br /><br />I'm really hoping they can improve the show -- I'd hate to see it canceled before it gets a fair chance at life.Rourke Douglas Deckerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03046133770821794200noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28968425.post-89459650307180041422009-08-10T16:43:35.595-07:002009-08-10T16:43:35.595-07:00Hi Rourke, thanks for taking the time to comment. ...Hi Rourke, thanks for taking the time to comment. I will agree with you that Steven Schirripa as the host seems to be a poor choice, although perhaps he will grow into the role. While I will also agree that the first contestant was far from a "made for TV" personality (and by the way, if you liked him, keep an eye out for November Nine chip leader Darvin Moon, who seems to be cut from a similar cloth with regard to his relationship to the camera), I found that to be refreshing, at least in a small dose. I also found that any difficulty in watching contestant 1 was redeemed in contestant 2, who I felt showed that a "regular guy" with some basic poker knowledge could hold his own against tough competition, that you don't have to be an Internet whiz kid or a math genius to play poker, and I think that is good for the game.<br /><br />My 5-to-1 came from the fact that Topel had $200,000 in hand and was risking it to win 1 million; 1 million:200,000::5:1 (by the same token, 200,000:40,000::5:1).Craig Bergerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06895405601179743376noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28968425.post-54653879416389647352009-08-10T16:15:12.170-07:002009-08-10T16:15:12.170-07:00After learning about this show from my World Serie...After learning about this show from my World Series of Poker Academy instructor, Charley Swayne (I am not actually enrolled in WSOPA -- he just happens to teach at my university), I looked forward to <i>Face the Ace</i> with great anticipation. Frankly, I couldn't have been more disappointed, and therefore I'm rather surprised with your positive rating of the show.<br /><br />As a diehard Texas Hold'em fan and player, I found myself practically horrified with the chintziness of the whole affair: the boorish host, the cheesy theme music, the stilted banter, and the absence of any personality among the chosen qualifiers. Though I freely admit I have a strong bias against reality television to begin with, I found myself wondering how much experience the producers had, having made (in my opinion) so many tactical errors in casting, premise, and choosing of contestants. Shirripa frankly admits he has no idea what is going on. At first it was virtually impossible for me to root for the qualifiers (as a two-time Iraq vet, I was positively embarrassed by the first qualifier), but I'll admit the second contestant made it engaging for the $200,000 match; too bad he allowed Gavin Smith to get in his head and played too conservatively in the million-dollar match. I also think they need to rethink the gambling aspect of the premise; contestants shouldn't have to play all-or-nothing but should at least have some consolation prize if they lose a subsequent match.<br /><br />Overall, I'm afraid the show is not long for television unless it is quickly revamped. Already it's being moved out of prime time into some obscure time slot. More's the pity, since I'd like to see it renewed for another season, so I can have a chance to qualify myself.<br /><br />Great analysis and review, by the way, even if I don't agree with it at all. I do wonder, though, where did you get the 5-1 odds for the qualifiers? I concur that mathematically, the correct choice is to play for it all, and were I able to get on the show, I'd do so in a heartbeat.Rourke Douglas Deckerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03046133770821794200noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28968425.post-46000636125772029242009-08-04T09:24:39.120-07:002009-08-04T09:24:39.120-07:00To be honest I don't think the first guy was s...To be honest I don't think the first guy was savvy enough to have made an insurance deal before hand, and he had to make the choice on the spot. For future contestants, however, it would definitely be a good idea for them to try to get some kind of insurance, but of course they would have to find someone willing to lay that kind of money. Remember, this was some blue collar joe from Pennsylvania, not a kid living in a house in Vegas with Tom Dwan and Andrew Robl or something.<br /><br />My initial instinct was to say that the first match was heavily edited, but Nejad does say "Nygaard gets aces on his very first hand" or something to that effect. I suppose they could have dubbed that in later but that would be pretty sneaky. There could have been other hands edited out before the queens although if there were the edit was pretty seamless.Craig Bergerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06895405601179743376noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28968425.post-57283226486877117032009-08-04T01:36:04.418-07:002009-08-04T01:36:04.418-07:00Funny that the first guy is turning down the chanc...Funny that the first guy is turning down the chance to get 5-1 against a pro, yet these people are 3-0 against the pros! I'm surprised the first guy didn't get backers or insurance or something so that he could safely risk playing on for the million. <br />Did it feel like they were showing every hand? Do you think AA was really his first hand dealt, or just his first hand that NBC showed?Ricknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28968425.post-91644549995910989042009-08-03T15:56:32.540-07:002009-08-03T15:56:32.540-07:00The good news is that while you may find Steven Sc...The good news is that while you may find Steven Schirripa lame and annoying, it won't be in the same way as Ali Nejad. The bad news is that Ali Nejad is the tournament director/announcer of the game. Yes, the pros are so far 0 for 3, but it really did not appear, to me, at least that the pros tanked in any way. The show (not intentionally, one presumes) did a good job of showing how small the skill gap can be in a short term poker situation.Craig Bergerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06895405601179743376noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28968425.post-69558481161312644552009-08-03T15:44:19.589-07:002009-08-03T15:44:19.589-07:00Sounds good, thanks for the recommendation! I hope...Sounds good, thanks for the recommendation! I hope the host is not as annoying and lame as Ali Nejad. Were those the only 2 contestants? If so, then the pros are 0 for 3?Ricknoreply@blogger.com